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Systematic review and meta-analysis

Paediatric hypertension in Nigeria (2000 - 2025): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Paediatric hypertension in Nigeria (2000 - 2025): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Kevin Bassey1,&, Olumuyiwa Folayan2, Ifunanya Ebiekpi1

 

1Department of Paediatrics, University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo, Nigeria, 2Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria

 

 

&Corresponding author
Kevin Bassey, Department of Paediatrics, University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo, Nigeria

 

 

Abstract

The prevalence of paediatric hypertension appears to be increasing in Nigeria and other low- and middle-income settings, although available evidence remains limited and heterogeneous. Hypertension is the leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and early-life control of blood pressure is critical for reducing adult disease burden. This review aimed to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of hypertension among Nigerian children between 2000 and 2025. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EBSCO, African Journals Online, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar was conducted for studies published between January 2000 and September 2025. Eligible studies reported the prevalence and/or risk factors of hypertension in individuals aged <19 years. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic, and publication bias was evaluated using Egger's regression test. Forty-nine studies (n = 51,283) were included, of which 38 were pooled in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of hypertension (n = 38) (blood pressure (BP) ≥95th percentile for age, sex, and height) was 4.78% (95% CI 3.89-5.85%; I2 = 95.9%), and 7.86% (95% CI 5.52-11.08%; I2 = 98.2%) for pre-hypertension elevated blood pressure (BP 90th-94th percentile) (n = 24). Overweight and obesity were the most consistently reported risk factors across studies. A gender meta-analysis demonstrated a higher observed prevalence of hypertension among females compared to males (risk ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.66; Z = 3.25, P < 0.001) (n = 26), with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 66.65%). Egger's test suggested small-study effects in the primary analysis (P < 0.001). Paediatric hypertension in Nigeria represents a substantial and potentially increasing public health concern. However, very high heterogeneity across studies limits the precision of pooled estimates. Standardized diagnostic approaches and well-designed longitudinal studies are needed to better define the burden and inform effective prevention strategies.

 

 

Introduction    Down

It is now known that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 71% of all global deaths and 14.9% of all deaths in the paediatric age group [1], and an estimated 80% of these NCD-related deaths occur in LMICs [2]. Current evidence suggests that NCDs, such as cardiovascular disease, can be effectively prevented/reversed if such prevention begins in childhood [3]. Approaches to preventive efforts addressing NCDs and their risk factors that begin during childhood and adolescence may be the best option for reducing the long-term global burden of disease [4].

Hypertension is the most important factor driving the recent increase in prevalence of NCDs, being the major risk factor for cardiovascular disease [5]. It is also known that hypertension in childhood predicts worse outcomes for cardiovascular disease in adulthood and that risk factors for adult cardiovascular disease may be mitigated by interventions started in childhood [6,7].

Recent studies and reviews have shown that the prevalence of childhood hypertension is increasing worldwide, including low- and middle-income countries [8]. Earlier reviews from Africa have given a prevalence of hypertension in children of between 4 and 7.5%, with the prevalence significantly increased in overweight and obese children [5,9,10]. The only other published review from Nigeria gave a prevalence of 5.1% for hypertension and 8.2% for pre-hypertension [5] while observing a slight negative trend in the prevalence.

These findings make it imperative that elevated blood pressure and hypertension be identified and characterized in Nigerian children to provide evidence for the implementation of large-scale interventions to reduce risk factors for cardiovascular disease and reverse the trend towards increasing burden of NCDs in the country.

Using the population, exposure, outcome (PEO) model, this review seeks to answer the following questions: "what is the prevalence of hypertension in Nigerian children, and what risk factors are associated with hypertension in Nigerian children?" This review aimed to estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors for hypertension among Nigerian children and adolescents between 2000 and 2025.

 

 

Methods Up    Down

This systematic review was designed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA) [11], and the PRISMA flow diagram of the search process generated for the study is shown below in Figure 1, and a full PRISMA checklist is provided as a supplement.

A comprehensive literature search was carried out for articles published between January 2000 and September 2025. Studies included in the review were published and indexed articles in peer-reviewed journals that studied the prevalence and risk factors of paediatric hypertension in Nigerian children. Commentaries, editorials, case reports, and qualitative or mixed-methods studies were excluded. Studies done among people less than 19 years of age were included; adult studies and studies among people of all ages were excluded. Only studies published in the English language were included. The systematic review protocol was registered with OSF.

Search strategy: literature search was conducted across the following databases - MEDLINE, EBSCO (Global Health), Google Scholar, African Journals Online and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews using relevant Medical Subject Headings (MESH) keywords and Boolean connectors.

Keywords and phrases used included: "hypertension", "elevated blood pressure", "NCDs", "Nigerian," "Nigerian children", "Nigerian adolescents", "risk factors", "interventions". Boolean operators such as 'AND' and 'OR' were applied to broaden the search. The operator 'NOT' was used to exclude adult articles. Specific risk factors such as "physical inactivity", "dyslipidaemia", "overweight/obesity" were included in search terms. Reference lists of identified articles were also searched to identify additional relevant articles.

For MEDLINE, the search strings applied were : ("Hypertension"[MESH] OR "high blood pressure" OR "elevated blood pressure") AND ("Child"[MESH] OR "Adolescent"[MESH] OR children OR adolescents OR paediatric OR pediatric) AND ("Nigeria" OR Nigerian). The filters applied were for Language: English and for Publication date: January 2000 - September 2025. Similar search strings and keywords were applied to the other databases. For Google Scholar, the first 200. Additional search methods included manual screening of reference lists of included articles to identify further relevant studies. A detailed database search strategy is provided as Annex 1.

Screening and selection: the results were screened for duplicates, which were subsequently removed. This was followed by title and abstract screening, which was completed by the lead researcher (KB), with 10% of titles and abstracts being additionally screened by a second member of the research team (IU). Inter-rater agreement, as measured by Cohen's Kappa, was 0.89, showing almost perfect agreement (P < 0.001). Full texts of eligible articles were then accessed for full-text screening. All full-text articles were double-screened independently by two of the three authors. Conflicts were resolved by the third author.

Risk of bias assessment: the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale, adapted for cross-sectional studies, was used to assess the quality of included studies and to assess their risk of bias [12]. Scores of the studies are included in the data summary, and a full analysis is included as Annex 1.

Data analysis: data and information from publications that met the inclusion criteria were extracted into a standardized form. Key variables regarding authors, study period, sample size and target population, study design, risk factor descriptions and prevalence were extracted and presented in data summary tables in the results section.

The prevalence was pooled using a random-effects model meta-analysis to provide a single summary estimate. For relative risk estimates, odds ratios and risk ratios were considered as equivalent measures. Pooled estimates were provided along with calculated 95% confidence intervals. For the purposes of the meta-analysis, only studies defining elevated BP as BP ≥90th but <95th percentile and hypertension as BP ≥ 95th percentile for age, sex, and height were included. The assessment of between-study heterogeneity was done using I2 statistics. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression was performed in case of significant heterogeneity, comparing the following pre-determined variables: age (adolescents and younger children), sex, standards used for categorization of hypertension (for example, the AAP 2004 - Fourth Report; the AAP Clinical Practice Guidelines 2017 guidelines), sample size (<1000 vs >1000), year of publication, method of BP measurement and risk of bias. Publication bias was assessed using the Egger regression test P value for funnel-plot asymmetry. Analyses were performed in R using the metafor package.

Ethical considerations: as a systematic review and meta-analysis without original data collection, this study was exempt from ethical approval. To the knowledge of the authors, all included studies obtained ethical approval from their respective institutions.

 

 

Results Up    Down

The 49 studies included in this review were published between January 2000 and September 2025. The sample sizes of the included studies ranged from 195 to 2,694, and the cumulative sample size was 51,283. The age range of participants in the included studies was 2-19 years; however, 63% of all the included studies were performed exclusively among adolescents. Most of the studies were mixed gender; only one (2%) was performed exclusively among male adolescents. About three-quarters (75.5%) of the studies were carried out in Southern Nigeria, while 24.5% were from Northern Nigeria. Forty-one of the 49 included studies (83.7%) were assessed to have a low risk of bias (Newcastle-Ottawa Score 7-9), while the rest (16.3%) were assessed to have a moderate risk of bias (Newcastle-Ottawa score 5-6). None of the studies included had a high risk of bias. The commonest shortcoming of included studies was their failure to account for non-response participants and non-documentation of sample size determination.

The reported prevalence of elevated BP ranged from 1.6-47.3% for pre-hypertension, and 0.4-24.8% for hypertension in the children studied. Table 1 gives a summary of the characteristics of the studies included and their main results. The highest prevalence was recorded in a study by Owoeye et al. [13] among a group of male adolescent athletes. However, of the 30 studies reporting on gender, only four [14-17] found that the prevalence of elevated BP was higher in males than females, with 22 reporting a higher prevalence in females [18-39] and five [40-44] reporting no gender differences in hypertension prevalence. Only one study [19] investigated the presence of hypertensive heart disease by echocardiography in children with elevated BP. The study found that none of the children had evidence of hypertensive heart disease. Increasing weight, body mass index (BMI), or overweight/obesity were found to be predictors of elevated BP in 23 studies [14,15,18,23-25,29,32-34,36,38-40,42,44-51]. Not all studies [52-61] reported a clear relationship with gender or anthropometric variables.

Thirty-six of the studies applied the fourth report for the evaluation of BP in children and adolescents [62], five applied the 2017 AHA/AAP CPG [63] for BP in children and adolescents, while three of the earliest studies applied the second task force criteria [64]. Adult BP criteria were applied in two studies: BP > 2SD in one study and the criteria used was not explicitly stated in one study. One study applied the ESH 2016 criteria. The auscultatory method was used in 38 studies (77.6%), while the oscillometric method was used in seven (14.3%). The method used was not stated in three studies (6.1%), while both methods were used in one (2%). Measurements on multiple occasions were used to diagnose elevated BP and hypertension in only 12.2% of studies (Table 2).

A meta-analysis of 38 of the studies included yielded a pooled hypertension prevalence of 4.78% (95% CI 3.89-5.85%), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 95.9%; P < 0.001). The pooled pre-hypertension/elevated BP prevalence was 7.86% (95% CI 5.52-11.08%), also with considerable heterogeneity (I2 = 98.2%; P < 0.001) (Figure 2, Figure 3). Egger's test suggested small-study effects for both hypertension (P < 0.001) and pre-hypertension (P < 0.001) (Figure 4), although these should be interpreted cautiously given the substantial between-study heterogeneity. The gender subgroup analysis demonstrated a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension among females compared to males (RR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.66; Z = 3.25, P < 0.001) (Figure 5). Between-study heterogeneity was moderate to substantial (I2 = 66.7%) for the gender subgroup analysis. Egger's test did not indicate evidence of small-study effects in the gender meta-analysis (p = 0.786). Other subgroup analyses were conducted to explore potential sources of heterogeneity across studies restricted to those applying the fourth report, ESH 2016, or AAP CPG criteria. For hypertension, subgroup analyses by age group showed a higher prevalence (5.68%; 95% CI: 4.29-7.48) in studies conducted exclusively among adolescents than in studies of younger children (3.70%; 95% CI: 2.66-5.13%), and heterogeneity remained high (I2 > 90%). The test for subgroup difference was not significant (p = 0.05). Subgroup analyses of diagnostic criteria applied, publication period, sample size, and risk of bias likewise demonstrated some variation in pooled prevalence estimates; however, heterogeneity remained consistently high across all subgroups (I2 > 84%). Additional subgroup analyses based on methodological characteristics, including method of blood pressure measurement and whether repeat measurements were performed, similarly showed variability in prevalence estimates without a meaningful reduction in heterogeneity. A comparable pattern was observed for pre-hypertension, where subgroup-specific estimates varied modestly, but substantial heterogeneity persisted across all strata (I2 > 90%) (Table 3). Meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate the influence of study-level variables on between-study heterogeneity. Covariates included publication year, sample size, Newcastle-Ottawa scale score, age group, diagnostic criteria, risk of bias, method of blood pressure measurement, and repeat measurement status. Meta-regression showed that none of the examined covariates demonstrated consistent or statistically significant associations with prevalence estimates (Table 4). A significant effect (p = 0.023) was noted on meta-regression of BP criteria applied for the only study that applied the ESH 2016 criteria. However, the overall test for moderator effect was not significant (p = 0.62) and heterogeneity remained significant (I2 = 95%).

Overall, neither subgroup analyses nor meta-regression were able to meaningfully explain the high degree of heterogeneity observed across studies, and these findings suggest that heterogeneity is likely driven by multiple interacting factors rather than a single dominant study-level characteristic.

Other risk factors identified in the included studies were family history of hypertension in five studies [19,31,32,43,54], sedentary lifestyle in two studies [21,31] and the use of alcohol and tobacco in one study [31].

 

 

Discussion Up    Down

Elevated blood pressure remains the strongest modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease [65], and childhood hypertension has been consistently associated with adult hypertension and long-term adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

Most studies included in this review reported prevalence estimates that were higher than those reported in a recent global systematic review [8], which found pooled prevalences of 4% for hypertension and 9.67% for pre-hypertension among children worldwide. In the present review, the pooled prevalence of hypertension was slightly higher, while the estimate for pre-hypertension was lower than the global estimate. Similarly, a systematic review conducted in Nigeria approximately a decade ago reported a hypertension prevalence of 5.1% [5], which is fairly consistent with the current finding. A 2022 review among African children reported higher pooled estimates for both hypertension and pre-hypertension than the current study [9]. This difference may, however, reflect the effect of other African regions in the estimate, as the pooled prevalence reported in this study was broadly comparable to that reported for the West African sub-region in the 2022 review (6%). Conversely, an earlier Africa-wide review [10] reported a similar, albeit slightly higher, pooled prevalence for hypertension (5.5%) to the current study.

Previous reviews conducted among Nigerian and African children did not demonstrate significant gender differences in hypertension prevalence [5,9,10]. In contrast, the current analysis found that several individual studies reported higher prevalence among females, and the pooled gender meta-analysis demonstrated a higher observed prevalence in females compared to males (RR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.66; P < 0.001). This finding may reflect evolving epidemiological patterns, as earlier Nigerian data did not demonstrate such differences [5]. Conversely, reports from North American studies have reported a higher risk of hypertension among boys compared to girls [63], suggesting that regional socio-cultural, behavioural, or biological differences may influence observed gender patterns. However, this observed association should be interpreted cautiously, as the included studies were predominantly cross-sectional and did not adjust for potential confounders such as body mass index, pubertal status, or socioeconomic factors.

Overweight and obesity were identified as predictors of hypertension in a substantial proportion of the included studies, consistent with previous reviews [5,8-10] and the well-established relationship between adiposity and elevated blood pressure [66]. These findings reinforce the importance of primary prevention strategies targeting childhood obesity. Interventions focusing on optimal maternal and early childhood nutrition, school-based feeding programmes, and promotion of regular physical activity are likely to be critical in mitigating the growing burden of hypertension in children.

The findings of this review indicate that paediatric hypertension represents a significant and potentially increasing public health concern in Nigeria. Given that the most effective interventions for non-communicable diseases are those initiated early in life, these results provide strong support for the implementation of large-scale preventive strategies targeting children and adolescents, like those adopted in high-income settings [67-69]. Such approaches have not yet been widely implemented in Nigeria. The current national policy and strategic plan of action on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases focuses primarily on adult populations, with limited emphasis on children and adolescents [70]. Furthermore, there are currently no large-scale screening or intervention programmes specifically targeting paediatric populations. There is an urgent need to revise existing policies to incorporate children and adolescents into national NCD prevention frameworks. In addition, international partners and multilateral funding agencies supporting sustainable development goals should ensure that paediatric populations are explicitly included in intervention strategies.

The overall prevalence estimates from this review should be interpreted with caution due to the substantial heterogeneity observed across studies. Even after restricting analyses to studies applying standardized diagnostic criteria (Fourth Report, ESH 2016, or AAP CPG), heterogeneity remained very high (I2 > 96%), and neither subgroup analyses nor meta-regression meaningfully explained this variability. This suggests that heterogeneity is likely driven by multiple interacting factors, including differences in study populations, measurement protocols, and unmeasured contextual variables.

In addition, a relative paucity of studies from the northern regions of Nigeria was observed, consistent with earlier findings [5]. This geographic imbalance may limit the generalizability of the results and suggests that unrepresented regional differences could have influenced the pooled estimates. This highlights the need for more geographically representative research, particularly in understudied regions of the country.

 

 

Conclusion Up    Down

The prevalence of hypertension among Nigerian children is substantial and may be increasing. Overweight and obesity were consistently associated with elevated blood pressure, highlighting the importance of early preventive strategies. A higher prevalence was observed among females; however, this finding should be interpreted cautiously given the observational nature of the included studies. There is a need for more robust, well-designed studies, particularly from underrepresented regions such as Northern Nigeria. In addition, the development and implementation of targeted prevention and screening programmes, aligned with the national NCD policy, are essential for the effective control of paediatric hypertension.

What is known about this topic

  • Control of elevated BP in childhood will prevent and reduce mortality from adult cardiovascular disease;
  • The prevalence of paediatric hypertension is significant and increasing worldwide;
  • The overweight/obesity epidemic significantly drives this increase.

What this study adds

  • This is the most up-to-date review on the subject in the country;
  • The review shows that the prevalence of hypertension is significant in Nigeria, a developing country;
  • It also shows a slight trend of higher prevalence in females, a finding that should, however, be interpreted cautiously.

 

 

Competing interests Up    Down

The authors declare no competing interests.

 

 

Authors' contributions Up    Down

Conception and study design: Kevin Bassey and Olumuyiwa Folayan; data collection and manuscript revision: Kevin Bassey, Ifunanya Ebiekpi, and Olumuyiwa Folayan; data analysis and interpretation and guarantor of the study: Kevin Bassey; manuscript drafting: Kevin Bassey and Ifunanya Ebiekpi. All the authors read and approved the final version of this manuscript.

 

 

Tables and figures Up    Down

Table 1: summary of studies on hypertension in Nigerian children included in the review and their main findings (N = 49)

Table 2: method of blood pressure measurement and guideline applied by included studies in the review (N = 49)

Table 3: sub-group analysis of study-level predictors of hypertension prevalence

Table 4: meta-regression analysis of study-level predictors of hypertension prevalence

Figure 1: PRISMA flow diagram outlining the search process for the review

Figure 2: pooled prevalence for childhood hypertension from included studies done in Nigeria 2000 - 2025: forest plot for studies included in meta-analysis (N = 38)

Figure 3: pooled prevalence of childhood pre-hypertension from included studies done in Nigeria 2000 - 2025: forest plot for studies included in meta-analysis (N = 24)

Figure 4: funnel plot for identification of publication bias in meta-analysis of studies for hypertension (N = 38)

Figure 5: gender risk ratio of childhood hypertension: forest plot from studies done in Nigeria 2000 - 2025 reporting on gender (N = 26)

 

 

Annex Up    Down

Annex 1: supplementary materials (PDF- 370KB)

 

 

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